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At a glance
The statistical model gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 42% probability to win away against Sunderland, with the draw at 25% and a Sunderland win at 33%.
The model estimates a 54% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion.
The model puts the probability that both Sunderland and Brighton & Hove Albion score at 56%.
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00.
Sunderland vs Brighton: Premier League Match Preview and Predictions
Welcome to Extratips for our Sunderland vs Brighton prediction. The match starts at 14:00 on Saturday, 10 October 2026, at the Stadium of Light.
Brighton have made the sharper start. They are third with 10 points and a +11 goal difference after five games. Sunderland sit 14th with four points and a -4 goal difference. Brighton also won the latest meeting 1-0, while December’s reverse fixture finished 0-0.
The standout prices are Brighton at 2.40, both teams to score at 1.66, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.88. Those odds point to a tight away edge, but not a one-sided contest.
Sunderland have won once, drawn once and lost three of their last five league matches. Their recent games include a wild 5-3 defeat at Manchester City. Brighton’s latest run is stronger: wins over Arsenal, Manchester United and Coventry, plus a draw with Leeds and a narrow loss to Chelsea.
Team news could matter. Sunderland may miss Mundle, Ballard, Diarra and suspended Reinildo. Brighton have several absentees, including Mitoma, Minteh, Ferguson and Wieffer, while Dunk and Ayari face late checks.
Brighton’s pace and finishing make them dangerous, but Sunderland’s home crowd can turn this into a proper scrap. Expect chances, pressure and goals at both ends. The model favours Brighton, BTTS and Over 2.5.
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Sunderland a 33% win probability, Brighton & Hove Albion 42%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 56%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 54%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 40
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Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x22.40
Brighton & Hove Albion to win
The model gives Brighton a 40.6% probability of winning, the highest 1X2 outcome. Brighton sit third with 10 points and a +11 goal difference, while Sunderland are 14th with four points and a -4 goal difference. Brighton have won two of the latest four meetings, including a 1-0 success in March, and their stronger attacking form supports the away selection. The 2.40 odds also reflect Brighton as the market favourite.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.66
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score a 55.9% probability. Sunderland have conceded 10 goals in five league matches, while Brighton have scored 16 in the same span. Sunderland’s recent 5-3 defeat at Manchester City also shows an open game can develop, and the 1.66 odds for Yes point to goals at both ends. Brighton’s defensive absences add further risk of a Sunderland response.
LostOver/Under1.88
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 54.4% probability. Brighton’s 16 goals from five league matches and Sunderland’s 10 conceded create a strong attacking setup. Recent results include Sunderland’s 5-3 loss at Manchester City and Brighton’s 5-0 win at Coventry, while both teams have players missing in defence and attack. The 1.88 odds for Over 2.5 support a match with at least three goals.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
7.49
Potential Winnings
$324.50
Brighton & Hove Albion to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
33%
Home
Fair odd 3.00
25%
Draw
Fair odd 3.98
42%
Away
Fair odd 2.41
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 77%
Under 23%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 54%
Under 46%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 31%
Under 69%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 56%
No 44%
First Half Winner
27%
Home
40%
Draw
33%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
17%
6%
3%
Draw
11%
14%
16%
Away
2%
6%
26%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.1
9.0
6.7
3.4
1
7.7
11.7
8.8
4.4
2
4.9
8.3
5.8
2.9
3
2.5
3.2
2.4
1.3
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunderland0
Brighton & Hove Albion1
14 Mar 26FT!
Sunderland0Brighton & Hove Albion1Brighton & Hove Albion vs SunderlandBrighton & Hove Albion0Sunderland0
20 Dec 25FT!
Brighton & Hove Albion0Sunderland0Brighton & Hove Albion vs SunderlandBrighton & Hove Albion1Sunderland0
23 Aug 11FT!
Brighton & Hove Albion1Sunderland0| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +12 | 19:7 | 21 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 11:5 | 18 | WWLWW | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 23:5 | 16 | WWWWD | |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 17:13 | 13 | WWLDL | |
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 9:8 | 12 | WLWDW | |
| 6 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +5 | 13:8 | 10 | LDWDD | |
| 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 10 | DLDWD | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 8:7 | 10 | LDWDD | |
| 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 8:7 | 9 | LDLDD | |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 11:15 | 9 | LWLWL | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 10:14 | 8 | LLWLD | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 7:11 | 8 | WDWLD | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:10 | 7 | DDDLD | |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 9:17 | 7 | LWDLW | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9:13 | 6 | WLLDD | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6:10 | 6 | WDLDD | |
| 17 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6:14 | 6 | LWWLL | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 7:10 | 5 | WLDDL | |
| 19 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5:9 | 5 | LLLWD | |
| 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 6:14 | 4 | LLLLD |
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