Our model gives the Home win a 45.4% probability, higher than the draw at 25.1% and the Away win at 29.6%. Sweden are slight favourites and the market backs that up, with Home priced around 1.8800–1.9100, implying roughly 52–53% chance. That edge reflects Sweden’s stronger overall squad depth and more consistent results at major tournaments. On neutral ground in Mexico, their physical style and set‑piece strength should translate well. With both sides needing points, Sweden’s extra quality in both boxes gives the Home outcome the best balance of probability and price among the 1X2 options.

The model gives BTTS Yes a 55.1% probability, slightly ahead of No at 44.9%. The market has BTTS Yes around 2.0000, implying about 50%, which is lower than our model’s estimation. That suggests some value on goals at both ends. Sweden are likely to control possession and create from wide areas, while Tunisia’s strength is in quick transitions and exploiting space behind the defence. In a neutral‑venue World Cup match where both teams are motivated to attack, it is realistic to expect each side to find at least one clear chance. Combining the model edge with the even‑money odds, BTTS Yes is a logical play.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 51.9% probability, just ahead of Under 2.5 at 48.1%. The bookmakers generally price Over 2.5 around 2.1000–2.2000, implying roughly 46–48% chance, which is again below the model’s estimate. That gap suggests a slight value edge on the Over. The expectation of an attacking Sweden side, plus Tunisia’s counter‑attacking threat, lines up well with our BTTS Yes pick. If both teams score, a third goal becomes very likely. With neither team wanting to settle for a draw this early in the group, Over 2.5 at these odds fits a match script of Sweden edging a lively, open contest. Conclusion: the most coherent angle is Sweden to win, both teams to score and at least three goals overall.