Our model gives Home a 46.8% probability, and the bookmakers back that up with short odds of 1.4500 on Uruguay to win. Uruguay have greater World Cup experience, stronger depth, and usually control games against lesser‑ranked sides with solid defending and patient buildup. Cape Verde are organised but still underdogs at this level and may struggle to sustain pressure over 90 minutes on neutral soil in Miami. Combining model edge and market price, a home win is the most logical outcome.

The model gives BTTS – No a 53.8% probability, slightly higher than Yes, and the market supports this view with odds of 1.7000 on BTTS – No. Uruguay often rely on a compact defensive block, happy to manage a lead rather than chase big scorelines, while Cape Verde’s main threat is on the counter but they may create few clear chances against a higher‑quality back line. A controlled Uruguay win without both sides scoring fits both tactical profiles and the model numbers.

Our model assigns Under 2.5 goals a 57.7% probability, higher than the 42.3% for Over 2.5. The odds are tight, with Under 2.5 priced at 1.9500, showing the market expects a competitive but not wide‑open game. Uruguay tend to manage tournament group matches with control rather than chaos, and Cape Verde usually focus on defensive shape and quick breaks. That combination often produces one‑ or two‑goal games rather than thrillers, so a narrow Uruguay win in a low‑scoring contest is the most likely scenario based on both data and styles. In conclusion, we expect Uruguay to edge this with a solid, professional display, in a game where Cape Verde find it hard to break through and goals stay limited.