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At a glance
The statistical model gives Vitória Guimarães a 57% probability to beat Moreirense, with the draw at 23% and a Moreirense win at 20%.
The model estimates a 51% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense.
The model puts the probability that both Vitória Guimarães and Moreirense score at 48%.
Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30.
Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense Preview
Welcome to Extratips and this Liga Portugal clash in Guimarães. Vitória Guimarães host Moreirense at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques on 2026-09-20 at 14:30, and the numbers point to a tight but home-leaning game. The top odds show Home at 1.6600, Draw at 3.7800, and Away at 5.3000, which tells the story clearly.
Vitória should feel the pressure to set the tone early, while Moreirense will look to stay compact and strike on the break. The model gives Home 55.4%, BTTS No 51.0%, and Over 2.5 51.0%, so a narrow home win with a controlled tempo looks the best fit. If Vitória score first, the match can tilt their way fast. If not, the draw stays live for longer than the hosts would like.
Best angle: Vitória Guimarães to win, with a cautious lean toward a low-scoring match and a possible late push from the home side.
Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Vitória Guimarães a 57% win probability, Moreirense 20%, and the draw 23%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 52%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 51%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 106
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Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x21.6600
Vitória Guimarães to win
The model gives Home a 55.4% probability, which backs Vitória Guimarães in a match where they also carry the stronger market edge at 1.6600. At Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, that home push matters, and the main h2h trend plus current league pressure should keep them more motivated.
LostBoth Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No
The model gives No a 51.0% probability, so it slightly leans toward at least one side failing to score. That fits a home-favoured game where Vitória Guimarães can control the pace, and it also matches the safer reading of recent balance in this fixture.
LostOver/Under
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 51.0% probability, so the lean is just above the line. With Vitória Guimarães expected to take the initiative and Moreirense likely needing moments on the break, the game can open up if the first goal comes early.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
1.66
Potential Winnings
$33.00
Vitória Guimarães to win
1x2 / Home
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
57%
Home
Fair odd 1.76
23%
Draw
Fair odd 4.32
20%
Away
Fair odd 5.03
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 75%
Under 25%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 51%
Under 49%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 29%
Under 71%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 48%
No 52%
First Half Winner
43%
Home
44%
Draw
13%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
38%
4%
1%
Draw
24%
15%
6%
Away
3%
4%
6%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
7.1
5.8
2.9
1.2
1
12.3
10.8
4.9
1.8
2
10.2
9.5
4.2
1.5
3
6.6
5.5
2.5
0.9
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +15 | 18:3 | 21 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 22:7 | 16 | LWWWW | |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 17:8 | 15 | DDWWW | |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 11:4 | 15 | DWWDW | |
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 10:7 | 11 | DLDWL | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 7:5 | 11 | DWLWW | |
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9:9 | 11 | WWWLD | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:14 | 10 | LDWDW | |
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 8 | DLLDW | |
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9:11 | 8 | WWLDL | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8:12 | 8 | DLLLD | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8:14 | 8 | DWLLW | |
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 9:7 | 7 | WDDDL | |
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5:8 | 5 | DLDLW | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7:15 | 4 | LLLLL | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 5:15 | 4 | LDLLW | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 3:16 | 4 | WLDLL | |
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 3:10 | 2 | LLDLL |
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