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At a glance
The statistical model gives AC Milan a 51% probability to beat Bologna, with the draw at 25% and a Bologna win at 24%.
The model estimates a 52% probability of more than 2.5 goals in AC Milan vs Bologna.
The model puts the probability that both AC Milan and Bologna score at 54%.
AC Milan vs Bologna kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 17:30.
AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction: Serie A Preview
Welcome to Extratips for the San Siro clash on 28 October 2026. AC Milan host Bologna at 17:30, with fourth place and 15 points against Bologna’s 15th-place total of five. Milan are unbeaten after seven rounds, while Bologna have one win, two draws, and four defeats.
The market lists Milan at 1.6000, the draw at 3.8000, and Bologna at 5.5000. Those prices point toward a home win, but Bologna may still find the net. The last five meetings were Bologna 0-3 Milan, Milan 1-0 Bologna, Bologna 1-0 Milan, Milan 3-1 Bologna, and Bologna 2-1 Milan. Milan lead that sequence 3-2, with three matches producing at least three goals.
Milan’s strengths are their unbeaten run, solid goal difference, and home control. Their concerns include injuries to Saelemaekers and Gabbia, plus Chukwueze’s doubt. Bologna need more cutting edge, especially with Orsolini and Piccoli injured, while Ferguson is suspended. Their best route is a compact shape and quick counters.
The key storyline is clear: Milan chase the top places, while Bologna need points to escape trouble. A narrow Milan win is the likeliest script. A 2-1 result rates highly; a 1-0 Milan win is a medium possibility, while a Bologna upset looks less likely. The main calls are Milan to win, both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals.
AC Milan vs Bologna Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives AC Milan a 51% win probability, Bologna 24%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 54%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 52%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 117
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AC Milan vs Bologna: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.6000
AC Milan to win
The model gives Home a 51.9% probability. Milan sit fourth with 15 points and remain unbeaten after seven matches, while Bologna are 15th with five points. Milan have won the last two league meetings, including a 3-0 away success. The 1.6000 home price also reflects strong market support, though Bologna’s recent 1-1 draw with Torino shows they can compete. Milan’s home edge and stronger start make a home win the leading choice.
Both Teams To Score1.8000
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 53.9% probability. Milan have scored 14 goals but conceded seven, while Bologna have scored six and allowed ten. Bologna’s attack could benefit from Milan absences, including Alexis Saelemaekers and Matteo Gabbia, while Bologna have also shown scoring potential despite a poor table position. The 1.8000 odds support an open contest, and a 2-1 Milan win fits both the home prediction and the recent balance of chances.
Over/Under1.8200
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 51.6% probability. Milan’s matches average three goals from their 14 scored and seven conceded, while Bologna’s recent record includes 6-10 in goal difference. The 1.8200 odds make this the slight market favorite. A Milan victory with both sides scoring points toward at least three goals, although recent head-to-head meetings have also included tight 1-0 results.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
5.24
Potential Winnings
$212.08
AC Milan to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
51%
Home
Fair odd 1.96
25%
Draw
Fair odd 4.02
24%
Away
Fair odd 4.14
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 76%
Under 25%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 52%
Under 48%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 29%
Under 71%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 54%
No 46%
First Half Winner
42%
Home
41%
Draw
17%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
34%
5%
2%
Draw
19%
15%
8%
Away
3%
5%
9%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.6
6.8
3.6
1.4
1
11.2
11.7
6.3
2.2
2
8.7
10.2
5.4
1.8
3
4.9
5.1
3.1
1.1
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 21:9 | 19 | WWDWW | |
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 14:4 | 19 | WWWDW | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +13 | 16:3 | 17 | WDDWW | |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 14:7 | 15 | WDWDD | |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 12:7 | 14 | WDLWW | |
| 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13:9 | 13 | WLWDW | |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13:11 | 13 | WWWDL | |
| 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 6:7 | 13 | LDWWW | |
| 9 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 9:8 | 11 | LDWLD | |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10:7 | 10 | LWDWL | |
| 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 10:11 | 9 | LWLLL | |
| 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9:12 | 9 | WLLWL | |
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 12:14 | 8 | LDLWD | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 15:18 | 7 | LWLWL | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 6:10 | 5 | LWDLD | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 9:16 | 4 | LLLLL | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 5:13 | 4 | LWLDL | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 8:17 | 4 | LLDWL | |
| 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4:13 | 4 | LLWLD | |
| 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6:16 | 3 | WLLLL |
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