Our model makes Arsenal a very slight favourite, giving the Away win a 36.4% chance, just ahead of Brighton at 35.6% and the draw at 28.0%. Arsenal come into this trip to the Amex flying, with four straight competitive wins, including tight league victories over Aston Villa and Chelsea and a hard-fought Champions League success away to Napoli, all by a single-goal margin. Brighton are always lively at home, but their recent run shows both sides of their game: a 4-0 home win over Aston Villa, a 3-4 loss at Chelsea, and a 1-1 draw with Leeds, underlining that they can hurt big teams but also leave space. Head-to-head form leans Arsenal’s way too. The last five league meetings read: Brighton 0-1 Arsenal (Mar 2026), Arsenal 2-1 Brighton (Dec 2025), Arsenal 2-0 Brighton (Oct 2025), Brighton 1-1 Arsenal (Jan 2025), Arsenal 1-1 Brighton (Aug 2024). Arsenal have taken three of those, with two draws and no Brighton win in that stretch. With Arsenal’s sharper defence, stronger squad depth, and clear title ambitions compared to Brighton’s fight for a top-half and European spot, the Away win lines up with both our model and the market, where the best price for Arsenal sits around 1.70–1.73.

Our model points firmly toward goals at both ends, giving BTTS Yes a 57.1% probability versus 42.9% for No, and that matches the market, where Yes is trading close to 1.75 and No around 2.00. Brighton’s recent home record is full of open games: in their last five at the Amex they have beaten Aston Villa 4-0, Tromsø 4-0, Bologna 1-0, drawn 1-1 with Leeds and had a 0-0 away leg in Europe, showing they create plenty and usually commit players forward. Arsenal, meanwhile, have been ruthless but not always watertight; their last five away and neutral matches include a 1-0 win at Aston Villa, a 2-1 home win over Chelsea, and solid victories over Coventry and Manchester City, with chances at both ends. The head-to-head trend also supports BTTS. Across the last five league meetings we have seen scorelines like 2-1 Arsenal, 2-0 Arsenal, and two 1-1 draws, with Brighton often finding a way to score against bigger sides at home. Brighton’s attacking style under their current coach, combined with Arsenal’s pressing and high line, makes a trade of chances very likely, so BTTS Yes fits the statistical edge and the way these sides actually play.

Our model expects a reasonably high-scoring clash, giving Over 2.5 goals a 52.9% probability compared to 47.1% for Under, while bookmakers broadly agree, pricing Over 2.5 around 1.80–1.82 and Under at about 2.00. Brighton’s recent home matches have been packed with goals: a 4-0 win over Aston Villa, a 4-0 win over Tromsø, and a wild 3-4 defeat away to Chelsea show both attacking flair and defensive gaps. Arsenal also bring plenty of firepower; in their last handful of competitive games they have put two past Chelsea, three past Coventry, and three past Manchester City in the Community Shield, while still keeping some clean sheets. The head-to-head series has seen several high-scoring contests too, including Brighton 2-4 Arsenal and Arsenal 2-0 Brighton in recent seasons, plus those 2-1 scorelines in North London. Putting this together, an Arsenal win combined with both teams scoring naturally points toward a 2-1 or 3-1 type outcome, which falls on the Over side of the 2.5 line and aligns neatly with our model’s edge.