Our model makes CSKA Sofia the clear favourite here, giving the Home win a 45.3% probability, ahead of the draw at 24.8% and the away win at 29.9%. CSKA are at home at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija in Sofia and need a strong reaction after losing the first leg 3–0 in Crete, so their motivation will be sky‑high. Recent Europa League qualifiers show they can turn ties around, as they scored three away at Maccabi Tel‑Aviv and then edged the second leg at home. OFI, meanwhile, have been inconsistent on the road, with several heavy defeats in recent trips despite the big first‑leg win. The match is set up for CSKA to push from the first whistle, backed by a loud home crowd, and our model’s edge on the Home outcome plus the short odds of 1.6200 underline that expectation.

Our model points strongly towards goals at both ends, giving BTTS Yes a 55.7% probability versus 44.3% for No. CSKA must chase the game after a 3–0 defeat in the first leg, so they are likely to open up and commit numbers forward, which usually leaves space at the back. OFI have shown they can exploit that space, scoring three times against CSKA already and finding the net in tough away friendlies and league games. Full‑time BTTS odds sit very close, with Yes at 1.8600 and No at 1.9000, suggesting a finely balanced market where both teams are expected to create chances. With CSKA pushing for goals and OFI dangerous on the counter, a scoreline where each side finds the net fits both the model’s numbers and the tactical picture.

The model favours a lively game, giving Over 2.5 goals a 56.6% probability, compared to 43.4% for Under 2.5. CSKA’s recent European ties have been high‑scoring, with three‑goal games against Maccabi Tel‑Aviv and the 3–0 loss to OFI in the first leg, while OFI’s away results also feature matches with multiple goals. The market reflects this attacking outlook, with the main goal line set at 2.5 and Over priced at 1.8500, slightly shorter than Under at 1.9500, hinting that bookmakers also lean towards a three‑goal or higher contest. Given CSKA’s need to overturn a big aggregate deficit and OFI’s counter‑punching style, a scenario with at least three goals and both teams involved aligns well with our BTTS Yes and Home‑win calls, making Over 2.5 a coherent play. In summary, we expect an open game, CSKA on the front foot, OFI threatening in transition, and the scoreboard moving early and often.