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At a glance
The statistical model gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 63% probability to beat Crystal Palace, with the draw at 21% and a Crystal Palace win at 16%.
The model estimates a 59% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace.
The model puts the probability that both Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace score at 53%.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 13:00.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace: Premier League Match Preview and Predictions
Welcome to Extratips for a lively M23 derby at the American Express Community Stadium. Brighton host Crystal Palace in Falmer on Sunday, 18 October 2026, with kick-off at 13:00. Brighton are flying high in third place with 13 points from six games, while Palace sit 15th with four points. The Seagulls have scored 18 goals, compared with Palace's six, so the form book clearly favours the hosts.
Form, Odds and Team News
Brighton have won four of their last five listed home league matches. Palace's recent away run includes a win, a draw and defeats, but this fixture has often favoured the Eagles. The last five meetings were: Brighton 4-1 Palace, Palace 3-1 Brighton, Palace 2-1 Brighton, Palace 0-0 Brighton, and Palace 1-0 Brighton. That is three Palace wins, one draw and one Brighton win.
The top odds are Home at 1.5700, Over 2.5 at 1.5500, and BTTS Yes at 1.6600. Brighton's attack is the main strength, while Palace remain dangerous in transition. Palace could welcome Ismaïla Sarr back to the starting line-up, but Jean-Philippe Mateta, Dean Henderson and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain fitness concerns. Brighton also have doubts over Evan Ferguson, with Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh nearing returns.
Key Angles
Brighton's high-scoring start meets Palace's derby resilience. The Eagles' recent dominance in this rivalry adds tension, but the table and home form point toward a Seagulls response. A likely script is Brighton controlling possession and winning 2-1 or 3-1. A Palace counter-attacking win is possible, but less likely. The conclusion is a narrow Brighton victory in an entertaining game with goals at both ends.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 63% win probability, Crystal Palace 16%, and the draw 21%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 53%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 59%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 100
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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.5700
Brighton & Hove Albion to win.
The model gives Home a 55.2% probability. Brighton sit third with 13 points from six matches and have scored 18 goals, while Palace are 15th with four points. Brighton have also won four of their last five listed home league matches. Palace's recent away record is mixed, and Brighton's attacking form gives the hosts the edge despite Palace's strong recent head-to-head record.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.6600
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Yes a 54.6% probability, supported by the expected attacking quality on both sides. Brighton have scored 18 goals in six league matches, while Palace have shown they can trouble Brighton in this rivalry, winning the last two meetings listed. Palace may also regain Ismaïla Sarr, although Jean-Philippe Mateta remains a fitness doubt. The 1.6600 odds reflect a likely open contest.
WonOver/Under1.5500
Over 2.5 total goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 56.3% probability. Brighton's 18 goals in six matches point to a high-tempo attack, and their recent results include 3-0 against Arsenal, 5-0 against Coventry and 3-4 against Chelsea. The last five head-to-head results produced 11 total goals, including Brighton's 4-1 win and Palace's 3-1 victory. The available 1.5500 odds support three or more goals.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
4.04
Potential Winnings
$151.98
Brighton & Hove Albion to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 total goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
63%
Home
Fair odd 1.59
21%
Draw
Fair odd 4.75
16%
Away
Fair odd 6.28
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 80%
Under 20%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 59%
Under 41%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 35%
Under 65%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 53%
No 47%
First Half Winner
51%
Home
33%
Draw
15%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
46%
4%
2%
Draw
18%
10%
5%
Away
4%
5%
7%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
5.1
4.4
2.0
1.0
1
10.1
9.9
4.7
1.3
2
9.9
10.3
4.9
1.3
3
7.7
6.3
3.4
1.0
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 20:10 | 21 | LLWWW | |
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 13:5 | 21 | WWWLW | |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 24:7 | 19 | WLWWW | |
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19:15 | 16 | WLWWL | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 11:8 | 15 | WWLWD | |
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 16:9 | 14 | WDLDW | |
| 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 14:13 | 12 | WWWLL | |
| 8 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11:10 | 11 | DDLDL | |
| 9 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 9:8 | 11 | LDDLD | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 12:14 | 11 | WLLWL | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 9:12 | 11 | WWDWL | |
| 12 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14:18 | 11 | DDLWL | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 8:9 | 10 | LLDWD | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 8:10 | 9 | WWDLD | |
| 15 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 9:16 | 9 | WLLWW | |
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8:10 | 8 | WWLDD | |
| 17 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10:15 | 7 | LLDDD | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 9:19 | 7 | LLWDL | |
| 19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6:12 | 6 | LDLLL | |
| 20 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 7:17 | 5 | LDLLL |
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