EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 45% probability to beat Ararat-Armenia, with the draw at 23% and a Ararat-Armenia win at 32%.
The model estimates a 56% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia.
The model puts the probability that both Jagiellonia Białystok and Ararat-Armenia score at 52%.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 19:00.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction
Welcome to Extratips for the Europa League clash between Jagiellonia Białystok and Ararat-Armenia. The match is scheduled for 15 October 2026 at 19:00. The supplied venue is Stadion Miejski in Miejska Gorka, Poland, though several listings place the game at Stadion Miejski in Białystok. That venue detail should be checked before kickoff.
Betting Picture
The top three prices point toward a home-led, open contest: Jagiellonia win at 1.4400, Over 2.5 goals at 1.6000, and Both Teams To Score—Yes at 1.8000. The model is less confident than the market, giving Home 48.1%, Yes 52.4%, and Over 2.5 55.5%.
Form and Key Angles
Jagiellonia beat Iberia in Europa League qualifying but lost 2-1 away to Olympiacos. Recent domestic results also include a 3-1 defeat by Legia Warszawa and a 2-1 win over Śląsk Wrocław. Ararat-Armenia has mixed results, with a 4-0 friendly win over Jagiellonia listed alongside a 4-1 loss to Shkendija and a 4-1 defeat by Sparta Prague.
Both teams began the league phase with defeat, leaving motivation high. Jagiellonia should have more control at home, while Ararat’s direct attacks can punish any loose defending. The main storylines are the home side’s response to European pressure, Ararat’s chance to turn recent heavy defeats into a statement, and the unusual venue information.
A 2-1 home win looks the most natural script. A more open 2-2 draw is possible if Ararat scores first, while a low-scoring 1-0 result remains a lower-likelihood scenario. With no verified full standings table, injury list, or five-match head-to-head record available, these picks rely on the supplied prices, confirmed recent results, and the model probabilities.
Conclusion: Jagiellonia holds the edge, but the strongest match theme is goals at both ends.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 45% win probability, Ararat-Armenia 32%, and the draw 23%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 52%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 56%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 37
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Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.4400
Jagiellonia Białystok to win.
The model gives Home a 48.1% probability. Jagiellonia has home advantage, while the available recent form shows a 2-1 Europa League defeat at Olympiacos and strong qualifying wins over Iberia. Ararat-Armenia lost 4-1 to Sparta Prague and 4-1 to Shkendija, although its 4-0 friendly win shows attacking threat. No reliable five-match head-to-head record or full current standings table is available, so the market odds also matter: Home is priced at 1.4400.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.8000
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Yes a 52.4% probability. Jagiellonia’s recent matches include goals at both ends, including a 2-1 loss to Olympiacos, while Ararat-Armenia has shown scoring ability despite conceding heavily in European games. The bookmaker price of 1.8000 also makes Yes the shorter BTTS option, supporting a lively match rather than a controlled 0-0 or 1-0 contest.
WonOver/Under1.6000
Over 2.5 total goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 55.5% probability. Both sides have recently been involved in open games: Jagiellonia lost 3-1 to Legia and 2-1 to Olympiacos, while Ararat-Armenia suffered 4-1 defeats against Shkendija and Sparta Prague. The available Over 2.5 odds are 1.6000, and the attacking patterns support at least three goals.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
4.15
Potential Winnings
$157.36
Jagiellonia Białystok to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 total goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
45%
Home
Fair odd 2.20
23%
Draw
Fair odd 4.35
32%
Away
Fair odd 3.16
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 78%
Under 22%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 56%
Under 44%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 34%
Under 66%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 52%
No 48%
First Half Winner
32%
Home
38%
Draw
30%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
23%
4%
3%
Draw
12%
15%
12%
Away
2%
5%
24%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.4
6.6
4.4
2.4
1
8.9
9.7
6.6
3.1
2
7.6
8.6
5.1
3.1
3
4.6
4.5
2.6
1.4
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 13:3 | 12 | WWWW | |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 11:2 | 12 | WWWW | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 11:3 | 12 | WWWW | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 10 | WWDW | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 11:4 | 10 | WDWW | |
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 10 | DWWW | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | LWWW | |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 11:8 | 7 | LDWW | |
| 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 7 | WLWD | |
| 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4:3 | 7 | WWDL | |
| 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 7 | LDWW | |
| 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 8:9 | 7 | WWDL | |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6:7 | 7 | DLWW | |
| 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 7:4 | 6 | LWWL | |
| 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6:3 | 6 | WWLL | |
| 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | WLLW | |
| 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 6 | DDWD | |
| 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6:7 | 6 | LLWW | |
| 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 7:9 | 6 | WLLW | |
| 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 9:4 | 5 | DWDL | |
| 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 5 | DDLW | |
| 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:6 | 4 | LLDW | |
| 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:6 | 4 | DWLL | |
| 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | LWLD | |
| 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 5:9 | 4 | WDLL | |
| 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 3:8 | 4 | LDLW | |
| 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWLL | |
| 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLWL | |
| 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLWL | |
| 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3:7 | 3 | WLLL | |
| 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 2:6 | 3 | WLLL | |
| 32 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6:11 | 3 | WLLL | |
| 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1:8 | 1 | LLLD | |
| 34 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 2:10 | 1 | LLDL | |
| 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 2:12 | 1 | LDLL | |
| 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 4:14 | 0 | LLLL |
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