Our model makes England clear favourites, giving the Away win a 52.4% probability, compared with 25.2% for Norway and 22.4% for the draw. England arrive in Miami after a dramatic 3-2 win over Mexico, showing their attacking depth with Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane both on the scoresheet. Norway also come in flying, turning around Brazil 2-1 thanks to a late Erling Haaland brace, but they rely heavily on his goals. On a neutral pitch at Hard Rock Stadium, England’s deeper squad, more balanced attack, and steadier defence give them the edge over a Norway side that can be explosive but still vulnerable at the back. The bookmakers back this picture too, pricing the Away win at 1.8500, the shortest price on the 1X2 market, versus 3.9000 for Norway and 3.8000 for the draw, which lines up neatly with our model and underlines England’s status as favourites.

The model points strongly toward goals at both ends, giving BTTS Yes a 60.5% probability, much higher than the 39.5% for No. Norway’s attack is built around Erling Haaland, who just hit two late goals to knock out Brazil, and they have scored freely whenever their starters are on the pitch. England, meanwhile, put three past Mexico in a tense Azteca thriller and have multiple match‑winners in advanced areas, from Kane to Bellingham. Defensively, both sides have shown small cracks, conceding twice in their round‑of‑16 games, which supports the case for both nets bulging. The BTTS market agrees: Yes is 1.7000, shorter than No at 2.0500, signalling that bookmakers also expect an open game where neither defence keeps a clean sheet.

Our model expects a lively quarterfinal, giving Over 2.5 goals a 60.7% probability, compared to just 39.3% for Under 2.5. Norway’s recent matches have been high scoring when their main XI starts, and their 2-1 comeback against Brazil showed how quickly they can flip a game late on. England also played in a five‑goal thriller against Mexico, winning 3-2, which underlines both their attacking quality and their occasional defensive lapses. With Haaland on one side and Kane plus Bellingham on the other, this clash at Hard Rock Stadium looks set for chances and goals rather than a cagey stalemate. The odds back a higher line as well: the main goal line around 2.50–3.00 has Over at 2.0000, close to pick’em, which fits nicely with our model’s strong lean toward a three‑goal game or more.