Qarabağ [LWLWW] enter the UCL play-off round as clear outsiders, with Opta giving them just an 11% chance of reaching the last 16—the lowest of any side remaining in the competition. That outlook reflects both their modest ranking among the qualifiers and a league phase campaign built largely on two early victories that ultimately proved decisive. While they remain firmly in the hunt for domestic glory following a 1-0 win over Mil-Muğan at the weekend, their recent European form paints a tougher picture. The horsemen have won just one of their last six UCL matches [1W, 1D, 4L], a sequence that includes a heavy 6-0 defeat to Liverpool. Yet their performances at home offer some hope. They held Chelsea to a draw in Baku earlier in the campaign and have posted a respectable main-draw home record [2W, 1D, 1L], suggesting they may still prove competitive on familiar soil. This tie marks a historic milestone, as the Blue and Whites become the first team from Azerbaijan to reach the UCL knockout phase. However, their record against English opposition remains a concern, with no wins in nine previous UEFA meetings [0W, 1D, 8L]. Injury issues also persist, with Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev ruled out. Gurban Gurbanov may deploy Camilo Durán in the frontline of a 4—2—3—1 formation.