Welcome to Extratips! We're bringing you expert analysis for one of Italian football's fiercest rivalries. Roma hosts Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico on May 17 in a critical Serie A 2025/2026 clash.
This is the Derby della Capitale—Rome's biggest match. Both teams fight for pride and crucial points late in the season. Roma plays at home, which gives them a real advantage. These matches are always intense and unpredictable. The atmosphere will be electric.
The bookmakers heavily favor Roma at home. Roma to win sits at 1.64 odds, suggesting a 61% win probability. A draw is priced at 4.05 odds with 25% chance. Lazio's away win is 5.50 odds, representing just 18% probability. The odds clearly reflect Roma's home-field dominance in this fixture.
Roma enters this match as the strong favorite. Their home record typically gives them confidence against their fierce rivals. Lazio, playing away in one of Italy's toughest atmospheres, faces an uphill battle. Both teams will be motivated by derby pride, but Roma's position as home favorites cannot be ignored.
The last five meetings between these clubs show competitive matches. Roma's home advantage in the Olimpico has proven decisive historically. Recent encounters display patterns of competitive football with varying results. This rivalry always produces drama and memorable moments.
Roma's recent home performances show solidity. They've secured important victories at their stadium. Lazio's away form presents challenges against top sides. Their defensive setup changes when traveling to difficult venues.
Roma's Strengths:
Roma's Weaknesses:
Lazio's Strengths:
Lazio's Weaknesses:
Scenario 1 (High Probability): Roma dominates possession and scores first. They control the game with 60%+ possession. Lazio defends deep and looks for counter chances. Roma wins 2-0 or 2-1.
Scenario 2 (Medium Probability): Lazio frustrates Roma early. The match stays tight for 60 minutes. Roma breaks through in the second half. Final score 1-0 Roma after a tense encounter.
Scenario 3 (Lower Probability): Lazio hits Roma on the counter and scores. Roma struggles to find rhythm. Match finishes 1-1 despite Roma's territorial advantage.
Total votes: 95
Roma's home advantage at the Olimpico is decisive. They're favored at 1.64 odds with 61% win probability. The derby atmosphere typically favors the home side. Lazio struggles away from their ground. Roma's superior home record makes them clear favorites.
Derby matches are often tight and tactical. Both defenses will be organized and disciplined. The odds at 1.85 suggest a 54% probability of under 2.5 goals. Roma will likely control possession but not overwhelm Lazio. A low-scoring result fits this competitive matchup.
Roma's strong home defense typically keeps clean sheets against Lazio. The 1.75 odds for both teams NOT to score show 57% probability. Lazio will sit deep defensively and struggle to break Roma's organized backline. Roma should score at least once, but Lazio may not. A 1-0 Roma victory fits this pattern perfectly.
Our picks
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Lazio0
Roma1Lazio1Roma1Roma2Lazio0Roma1Lazio0Lazio1Roma0Lazio0Roma0Lazio1Roma0Roma0Lazio1Roma3Lazio0| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | +54 | 89:35 | 87 | DDWWD | |
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | +22 | 58:36 | 76 | WWLDW | |
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | +28 | 59:31 | 73 | WWWWW | |
| 4 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +36 | 65:29 | 71 | WWWDW | |
| 5 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | +18 | 53:35 | 70 | LWLLD | |
| 6 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | +27 | 61:34 | 69 | DLWDD | |
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | +15 | 51:36 | 59 | DLWDL | |
| 8 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | +3 | 49:46 | 56 | DWWDL | |
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | +1 | 41:40 | 54 | WLLWD | |
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | -3 | 45:48 | 50 | LLWWD | |
| 11 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -4 | 46:50 | 49 | LLLWD | |
| 12 | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | -19 | 44:63 | 45 | DLWLD | |
| 13 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -18 | 28:46 | 45 | WLLLW | |
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -13 | 40:53 | 43 | WWLDW | |
| 15 | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | -9 | 41:50 | 42 | DWDLD | |
| 16 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -10 | 41:51 | 41 | LLDDL | |
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | -22 | 28:50 | 38 | WWLWD | |
| 18 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | -25 | 32:57 | 34 | LWWLL | |
| 19 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | -36 | 25:61 | 21 | LDLDD | |
| 20 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | -45 | 26:71 | 18 | LLLLL |
