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At a glance
The statistical model gives Real Madrid a 40% probability to win away against Roma, with the draw at 23% and a Roma win at 38%.
The model estimates a 65% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Roma vs Real Madrid.
The model puts the probability that both Roma and Real Madrid score at 64%.
Roma vs Real Madrid kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 19:00.
Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction: Champions League 2026/27
Welcome to Extratips for a heavyweight night at the Stadio Olimpico. Roma host Real Madrid on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:00. It is Matchday 2, and the table already gives Madrid the edge: Real sit 14th with three points, while Roma are 17th with one.
The market makes Madrid favourites at 1.9000, ahead of Roma at 3.7000 and the draw at 4.0000. Both teams to score is priced at 1.4000, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 1.8900. Our model also leans toward an away win, goals at both ends, and at least three goals.
Roma’s recent home run shows real bite, with wins over Torino and Atalanta plus a 2-2 draw against Inter. Madrid began Europe with a 2-1 win over Inter, led by Kylian Mbappé and Federico Valverde. The key battle will be Roma’s energy and set pieces against Madrid’s pace between the lines.
The main storyline is Mourinho facing his former club, with experience and emotion adding spice to the occasion. Roma must attack, but that may leave space for Madrid’s forwards. A 1-2 away win is the clearest script, though Roma’s Olimpico crowd could turn this into a fierce, end-to-end affair.
Verdict
Real Madrid have the stronger platform, but Roma should score. The best-supported calls are Away, Both Teams To Score: Yes, and Over 2.5 goals.
Roma vs Real Madrid Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Roma a 38% win probability, Real Madrid 40%, and the draw 23%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 64%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 65%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 64
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Latest News For Roma vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid [WWWLW] arrive in the Italian capital seeking to maintain their impressive European record under Mourinho. They narrowly defeated Inter Milan 2-1 on UCL matchday one, capitalising on high turnovers for both goals, before grinding out a 1-0 victory over Villarreal on Saturday despite Vinícius Júnior’s dismissal. Los Blancos have lost just one of their UCL main-draw fixtures under Mourinho, recording 15 wins and three draws in the process [15W, 3D, 1L]. However, their away form presents a potential weakness, with four defeats across their last eight UCL trips [4W, 0D, 4L]. Both of their competitive losses this season have also come on the road, suggesting they remain vulnerable away from the Bernabéu. Madrid will be without Éder Militão and Rodrygo. They may file out in a 4—2—3—1 setup with Kylian Mbappe leading the charge in the final third against Roma.
Roma vs Real Madrid: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.9000
Real Madrid to win.
The model gives Real Madrid a 40.4% probability, the highest 1X2 outcome. Roma have one point after Matchday 1, while Madrid have three after beating Inter 2-1. The 1.9000 away price also reflects Madrid’s stronger recent European position, although Roma’s home support keeps this close.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.4000
Both teams to score: Yes.
The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes — a 63.4% probability. Roma scored in their recent home wins over Atalanta and in the draw with Inter, while Madrid opened their campaign with a 2-1 victory over Inter. The 1.4000 price points to a game where both attacks should create chances.
WonOver/Under1.8900
Over 2.5 goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 64.1% probability. Madrid’s opening Champions League match finished 2-1, and Roma’s recent results include 2-2 with Inter, 2-1 against Atalanta, and 4-0 at Lecce. Those results suggest an open contest with enough attacking quality to reach three goals.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
5.03
Potential Winnings
$201.37
Real Madrid to win.
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes.
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals.
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
38%
Home
Fair odd 2.64
23%
Draw
Fair odd 4.43
40%
Away
Fair odd 2.53
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 84%
Under 16%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 65%
Under 35%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 44%
Under 56%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 64%
No 36%
First Half Winner
30%
Home
41%
Draw
29%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
23%
5%
3%
Draw
14%
13%
13%
Away
3%
5%
22%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
3.9
6.0
4.7
2.8
1
6.1
9.3
8.0
4.2
2
4.7
7.7
6.5
4.0
3
2.6
4.0
3.5
2.3
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 14:5 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 12:7 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 10:5 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 7:4 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 6:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 11:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 10:5 | 6 | WLW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9:5 | 6 | WLW | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 6 | WWL | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 7:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | WLW | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 10:5 | 5 | DDW | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | WLD | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4:3 | 4 | DWL | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4:3 | 4 | LWD | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 4 | WLD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 3 | LWL | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 5:6 | 3 | WLL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 5:6 | 3 | LLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 5:7 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6:9 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6:9 | 3 | WLL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 4:8 | 3 | LWL | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 4:9 | 3 | LWL | |
| 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3:8 | 3 | LLW | |
| 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3:8 | 3 | LWL | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 3:9 | 2 | DLD | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 5:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 2:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 4:10 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 1:13 | 0 | LLL |
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FenerbahçeLiverpoolLatest News For Roma vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid [WWWLW] arrive in the Italian capital seeking to maintain their impressive European record under Mourinho. They narrowly defeated Inter Milan 2-1 on UCL matchday one, capitalising on high turnovers for both goals, before grinding out a 1-0 victory over Villarreal on Saturday despite Vinícius Júnior’s dismissal. Los Blancos have lost just one of their UCL main-draw fixtures under Mourinho, recording 15 wins and three draws in the process [15W, 3D, 1L]. However, their away form presents a potential weakness, with four defeats across their last eight UCL trips [4W, 0D, 4L]. Both of their competitive losses this season have also come on the road, suggesting they remain vulnerable away from the Bernabéu. Madrid will be without Éder Militão and Rodrygo. They may file out in a 4—2—3—1 setup with Kylian Mbappe leading the charge in the final third against Roma.