Our model gives the Home win a 67.0% probability, and the market is even more one‑sided, with Spain priced at 1.080–1.090 for the full‑time Home result. Spain are a proven tournament side, used to dominating possession and territory against smaller nations. Cape Verde, while organized, lack depth and top‑level experience and are large underdogs at odds above 21.000. With Spain likely to control the ball and create far more chances, backing the Home win aligns with both the 67.0% model edge and the very short bookmaker price, making a Spain victory the most logical outcome here.

The model gives BTTS – No a 59.0% probability, slightly higher than Yes at 41.0%. Spain are expected to dominate and can keep the ball for long periods, which naturally limits Cape Verde’s attacks. The market agrees: BTTS No is around 1.500, while BTTS Yes is 2.500, showing a clear lean toward at least one side failing to score. Given the gap in quality and Spain’s ability to control risk once ahead, a clean sheet for Spain or a one‑sided scoreline fits both the numbers and the tactical matchup.

Our model gives Under 2.5 goals a 52.8% probability, slightly higher than Over 2.5 at 47.2%. That suggests a controlled Spanish win rather than a goal fest. Spain often manage games once in front, keeping the ball instead of chasing big scorelines, while Cape Verde are likely to sit deep and slow the tempo. Bookmaker lines around 3.5 goals also lean modestly to the Under, reinforcing a lower‑scoring profile. Combining a strong Spain win chance with BTTS No, a 2–0 type result looks very plausible, making Under 2.5 a logical play.

In conclusion, this match points toward a professional Spain victory, limited chances for Cape Verde, and a scoreline that stays on the lower side of the goal lines.