Our model gives the Home win a 53.1% probability, making Türkiye the clear favourite on a neutral field. The main market price around 2.10 for the Home side suggests the bookies also see Türkiye as more likely to take three points. Their more proactive style, greater attacking depth, and ability to pin teams back should create more chances than Paraguay over 90 minutes. Paraguay’s compact shape and counter threat keep them dangerous, but over a full match Türkiye’s pressure, higher technical level, and need for points in a World Cup group tilt this towards a narrow but deserved Türkiye victory.

The model gives BTTS Yes a 54.3% probability, edging it over No and pointing to goals at both ends. Market odds near 1.95 for BTTS Yes show the traders also expect a fairly open contest. Türkiye usually commit players forward and leave spaces when full-backs push on, which suits Paraguay’s direct counters. Paraguay are unlikely to dominate the ball, but they can create good chances from turnovers and set pieces. At the same time, Türkiye’s attacking quality and need for a result should see them on the scoresheet. The combination of Türkiye’s front-foot approach and Paraguay’s counter style makes both teams scoring the most logical outcome.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 53.5% probability, slightly higher than Under 2.5, so we follow that edge. Odds around 2.00 for Over indicate a balanced but genuine chance of a higher-scoring game. If Türkiye take the initiative and score first, Paraguay will have to open up more, which can stretch the game and increase shot volume. BTTS Yes is also favoured by the model, and matches where both teams score often go over this line. Given Türkiye’s attacking mindset, Paraguay’s counter-punching threat, and the pressure of World Cup group points, a 2–1 or even 3–1 type scoreline for Türkiye fits all three predictions well.

Conclusion: We expect a lively World Cup clash, with Türkiye edging it, both sides finding the net, and at least three goals overall.