Our model gives Spain (Away) a 57.5% chance to win, compared with only 19.2% for Uruguay and 23.2% for the draw. The market supports this view, with multiple Away prices around 1.50–1.55, including 1.5000 and 1.5300, implying roughly a 65% chance for Spain. Spain’s deeper squad, stronger recent tournament record, and superior control in big games make them more reliable over 90 minutes on neutral ground. Uruguay’s spirit and counter threat are real, but across a full match Spain’s technical edge and bench options should tilt key moments their way. In a likely scenario where Spain keep the ball and force errors, an Away win is the most realistic outcome.

Our model leans slightly to BTTS No at 50.6%, just ahead of Yes at 49.4%, and the market is even stronger on that side, with BTTS No priced at 1.7500, implying about 57%. That fits a match where Spain control territory and limit clear chances for Uruguay, while La Roja’s back line stays compact against counters and set pieces. Uruguay can be stubborn in defence, but they may struggle to create many high‑quality shots if Spain dominate the ball. This points to one team, most likely Spain, doing the scoring while the other fails to find the net, aligning neatly with our Away‑win angle.

Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 50.0%, exactly balanced with Under, but the odds show a small lean to the Over, with several prices around 1.85–1.90, including 1.9000, which implies a slight edge toward three or more goals. Combining this with our Away‑win and BTTS No angles suggests a scoreline like 2–0 or 3–0 to Spain is very plausible. Spain’s attacking quality usually generates enough chances over 90 minutes, especially on a good pitch at a neutral World Cup venue. If Uruguay are forced to chase late, spaces should open up even more, boosting the likelihood of the third goal. Taken together, Over 2.5 in a Spain‑controlled win is a logical and coherent path for this match.

Conclusion: All signs from our model and the odds point toward a Spain win, with one side failing to score, and a strong chance of at least three goals in an intense World Cup clash in Mexico.