EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Venezia a 55% probability to beat Fiorentina, with the draw at 22% and a Fiorentina win at 23%.
The model estimates a 66% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Venezia vs Fiorentina.
The model puts the probability that both Venezia and Fiorentina score at 60%.
Venezia vs Fiorentina kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:45.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Preview
Welcome to Extratips and this Serie A clash at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Venezia host Fiorentina on 11 September 2026, and the model leans toward a home edge in a game with goals.
The top market signals are clear: Home at 2.8600, BTTS Yes at 1.6600, and Over 2.5 at 1.9000. That points to a tight but lively match. Venezia will want points fast at home, while Fiorentina need a sharp away start to calm the crowd.
This looks like a game where both sides can score, and the tempo may stay high. Venezia's best route is to stay compact and attack on the break. Fiorentina should have more ball, but they cannot afford slow defending in transition.
A narrow home win, a draw with goals, or a 2-1 type scoreline all feel realistic. The safest read is a match with chances at both ends and a strong chance of three goals.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Venezia a 55% win probability, Fiorentina 23%, and the draw 22%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 60%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 66%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 108
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Venezia vs Fiorentina: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x22.8600
Venezia to win
The model gives Home a 54.9% probability, making Venezia the top call despite the tight market. The home edge at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo matters, and the odds still show a modest gap to Fiorentina. With BTTS and Over 2.5 also favored, a lively game can still break Venezia's way.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.6600
Both teams to score - Yes
The model gives Yes a 59.5% probability, so goals at both ends look more likely than not. Fiorentina usually bring enough threat to score, while Venezia's home boost should help them find a reply. That fits the market and keeps the game open.
WonOver/Under1.9000
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 65.2% probability, which is the strongest angle in the game. That points to an open match with chances for both sides. If the pace stays high and both teams play to attack, three goals is a strong live possibility.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
9.02
Potential Winnings
$401.02
Venezia to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score - Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
55%
Home
Fair odd 1.81
22%
Draw
Fair odd 4.64
23%
Away
Fair odd 4.33
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 85%
Under 15%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 66%
Under 34%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 44%
Under 56%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 60%
No 40%
First Half Winner
43%
Home
39%
Draw
17%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
38%
4%
1%
Draw
21%
14%
5%
Away
3%
5%
8%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
4.2
4.1
2.6
1.5
1
7.2
9.0
5.5
2.6
2
7.2
9.4
6.0
2.5
3
5.7
6.5
3.9
1.8
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 14:3 | 13 | DWWWW | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 15:8 | 13 | DWWWW | |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 8:3 | 13 | WDWWW | |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 5:2 | 12 | WWWLW | |
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 10:4 | 11 | WDDWW | |
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 9:4 | 10 | WDWWL | |
| 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 8:4 | 10 | WLDWW | |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 9:6 | 10 | LWWWD | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7:6 | 7 | DWLLW | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9:9 | 7 | LWDWL | |
| 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 5:7 | 6 | LLLWW | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 5:10 | 6 | LWLLW | |
| 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 8:11 | 4 | LLLWD | |
| 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | DLWLL | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4:7 | 4 | WLDLL | |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 8:12 | 4 | WLDLL | |
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 6:12 | 4 | DWLLL | |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 3:6 | 2 | DLDLL | |
| 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 3:10 | 1 | LDLLL | |
| 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 4:13 | 0 | LLLLL |
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