EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 54% probability to beat Hapoel Be'er Sheva, with the draw at 22% and a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win at 23%.
The model estimates a 50% probability of more than 2.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
The model puts the probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Be'er Sheva score at 48%.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 16:45.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva Prediction: Europa League Preview
Welcome to Extratips for the Europa League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Be’er Sheva. The match is set for 15 October 2026 at AFAS Stadion, with kick-off at 16:45. UEFA lists AZ’s first league-phase match as a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland, while Hapoel began with a 0-0 draw against Dinamo Zagreb.
AZ are listed 25th after one match with no points, while Hapoel sit 17th with one point. That makes this a key early test. AZ need a response in front of their home crowd, while Hapoel will value another disciplined defensive display. The away supporters’ ban adds an unusual backdrop to the night.
The leading prices point clearly toward the hosts: AZ are 1.2700 to win, the draw is 5.2000, and Hapoel are 7.5000. The BTTS market also leans slightly to No at 1.8000. The goal line is less clear, with Over 3.0 at 1.7200 and Under 3.5 at 1.6000.
AZ should have more possession and attack through wide areas. Hapoel’s best route may be a compact block, quick breaks, and set pieces. Their opening 0-0 shows defensive focus, but AZ’s need for three points could force the tempo higher after half-time.
The main storyline is simple: can AZ turn home pressure into a first European win? Another angle is the contrast between AZ’s attacking ambition and Hapoel’s early caution. A third is the unusual stadium atmosphere created by the restrictions on visiting supporters.
Likely scenarios include a controlled AZ win, rated high, a tight 1-0 contest, rated medium, or a more open 2-1 game, rated medium. The model’s three preferred angles are Home at 54.9%, BTTS No at 51.6%, and Over 2.5 at 50.5%. With no verified recent five-match head-to-head record, detailed last-five venue form, injuries, or suspensions available, those factors should be checked before kick-off.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives AZ Alkmaar a 54% win probability, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 23%, and the draw 22%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 52%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 50%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 92
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AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.2700
AZ Alkmaar to win.
The model gives Home a 54.9% probability. AZ have home advantage at AFAS Stadion, while the odds of 1.2700 show strong market support. The available league-phase form has AZ losing 1-0 away to Sunderland, while Hapoel drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb. No verified recent head-to-head series is available, so the home edge and stronger overall rating carry the prediction.
LostBoth Teams To Score1.8000
Both teams to score: No.
The model gives No a 51.6% probability. The odds of 1.8000 also make a clean sheet or one-sided score the shorter BTTS option. Hapoel opened the league phase with a 0-0 draw, and AZ lost 1-0 in their opener, suggesting cautious European starts. With AZ favoured to control the match, a 1-0 or 2-0 home win fits the form and result outlook.
WonOver/Under
Over 2.5 goals.
The model gives Over 2.5 a 50.5% probability, making it the narrow top outcome. The listed goal markets centre around three goals, with Over 3.0 priced at 1.7200, while the Over 2.5 price is not provided. AZ should create more chances at home, and the match could open if Hapoel must chase the game. A 2-1 or 3-0 result supports this selection, though the margin is slim.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
2.29
Potential Winnings
$64.30
AZ Alkmaar to win.
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: No.
Both Teams To Score / No
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
54%
Home
Fair odd 1.84
22%
Draw
Fair odd 4.47
23%
Away
Fair odd 4.28
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 74%
Under 26%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 50%
Under 50%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 29%
Under 71%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 48%
No 52%
First Half Winner
37%
Home
38%
Draw
25%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
31%
5%
2%
Draw
16%
12%
9%
Away
3%
4%
16%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
7.5
6.3
3.4
1.3
1
12.6
9.7
5.2
2.1
2
10.2
9.2
4.2
1.8
3
5.7
4.7
2.9
0.9
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 8:0 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 7 | WDW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 9:5 | 7 | DWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6:2 | 6 | WWL | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 5 | DWD | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | DLW | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5:3 | 4 | LDW | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | LWD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 4 | WLD | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | WDL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | DLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4:3 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4:5 | 3 | LWL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | WLL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | LLW | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 1 | LLD | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 2:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1:9 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 0 | LLL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3:9 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 | LLL |
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