EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 50% probability to beat Olympique Marseille, with the draw at 21% and a Olympique Marseille win at 29%.
The model estimates a 63% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille.
The model puts the probability that both Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Olympique Marseille score at 61%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille kicks off on Thursday 05 November 2026 at 20:00.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Prediction: Europa League Preview
Welcome to Extratips for the Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille match prediction. The Europa League clash starts at 20:00 on 5 November 2026 at BayArena in Leverkusen.
Leverkusen enter the game in fourth place in the Bundesliga with 13 points from seven matches. Their recent run includes a 2-0 European win at OFI Crete, a 2-1 victory over Freiburg, and a 5-2 cup success against Nürnberg. Marseille’s latest results are harder to trust. They drew 2-2 with Fleury and 3-3 at Strasbourg, then suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat against Lyonnes.
The market strongly favours the hosts. Bayer are priced at 1.4000 to win, compared with 4.7500 for the draw and 6.2500 for Marseille. Over 2.5 goals is also short at 1.4400, while Both Teams To Score is priced at 1.6600. Those numbers point toward Leverkusen controlling the game, but Marseille still finding attacking moments.
There are no verified details here for the Europa League standings, the last five head-to-head meetings, confirmed injuries, or exact Marseille league position and points. The available form suggests an open contest, with Leverkusen’s home strength against Marseille’s dangerous but unreliable attack. The main angles are a Leverkusen response after their league defeat at Hoffenheim, Marseille’s defensive recovery, and whether both teams can turn recent high-scoring games into European momentum.
Likely scenarios include a high-probability 2-1 Leverkusen win, a medium-probability 3-1 home success if Marseille’s defence cracks, and a lower-probability 1-1 draw if the visitors stay compact. The final call is Leverkusen to win, with both teams scoring and at least three goals overall.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 50% win probability, Olympique Marseille 29%, and the draw 21%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 61%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 63%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 45
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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.4000
Bayer Leverkusen to win
The model gives Home a 56.0% probability. Leverkusen sit fourth in the Bundesliga with 13 points and have won three of their last five matches, including a 2-0 Europa League win at OFI Crete and a 5-2 cup victory. Marseille’s recent results show defensive concern, including a 5-0 defeat to Lyonnes and draws against Fleury and Strasbourg. The home odds of 1.4000 also make Leverkusen clear favourites, though the model is more cautious than the market.
Both Teams To Score1.6600
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Yes a 56.5% probability. Marseille have scored in several recent matches but also conceded heavily, while Leverkusen have allowed 12 goals in seven Bundesliga games. The recent form points to chances at both ends, and the 1.6600 price supports a match where Marseille can contribute despite Leverkusen’s stronger home position. This fits a likely 2-1 result.
Over/Under1.4400
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 60.1% probability. Leverkusen’s league record includes 16 goals scored and 12 conceded after seven matches, while Marseille’s recent games produced open scorelines, including 2-2 and 3-3 draws before the 5-0 loss. The 1.4400 odds reflect strong market support for at least three goals. A 2-1 home win would support both this pick and the BTTS selection.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
3.35
Potential Winnings
$117.33
Bayer Leverkusen to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
50%
Home
Fair odd 2.02
21%
Draw
Fair odd 4.70
29%
Away
Fair odd 3.43
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 83%
Under 17%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 63%
Under 37%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 40%
Under 60%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 61%
No 39%
First Half Winner
33%
Home
37%
Draw
30%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
27%
4%
3%
Draw
15%
12%
10%
Away
4%
5%
22%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
4.1
5.5
3.8
1.9
1
7.5
9.5
7.0
3.1
2
7.0
9.3
6.0
2.9
3
4.7
5.6
4.0
1.5
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 8:0 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 7 | WDW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 9:5 | 7 | DWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6:2 | 6 | WWL | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 5 | DWD | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | DLW | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5:3 | 4 | LDW | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | LWD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 4 | WLD | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | WDL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | DLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4:3 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4:5 | 3 | LWL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | WLL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | LLW | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 1 | LLD | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 2:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1:9 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 0 | LLL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3:9 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 | LLL |
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