EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Benfica a 58% probability to beat Celtic, with the draw at 20% and a Celtic win at 22%.
The model estimates a 67% probability of more than 2.5 goals in Benfica vs Celtic.
The model puts the probability that both Benfica and Celtic score at 62%.
Benfica vs Celtic kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 19:00.
Benfica vs Celtic Prediction: Europa League Preview
Welcome to Extratips for Benfica vs Celtic at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon on 15 October 2026. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:00 local time, with both clubs seeking a strong Matchday 2 result. Benfica opened the league phase with a sharp 2-0 away win at Milan, while Celtic lost 3-1 at home to Ferencváros. UEFA notes that this is their ninth European meeting: Celtic have four wins, Benfica three, and one draw.
Match Outlook
The market strongly favours Benfica, with Home priced at 1.2800. Draw is 6.5000, while Celtic are listed at 9.5000. The model also leans toward goals, giving Over 2.5 a 66.4% probability and Both Teams To Score — Yes a 60.3% chance. Benfica’s recent listed run features wins over Milan, Gil Vicente, Moreirense, Marítimo and Estoril, before a 3-1 defeat at Porto. Celtic beat St Mirren and St Johnstone, but suffered losses to Rangers and Ferencváros.
The recent form points to Benfica’s control, depth and home energy. Celtic still carry pace on the break and enough attacking quality to score. That creates an intriguing tactical battle: Benfica should dominate possession, while Celtic may look for quick transitions. A 2-1 home win is the main match script, with 3-1 also possible if Benfica score early. The safer overall reading is a home victory in an entertaining game.
Benfica vs Celtic Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Benfica a 58% win probability, Celtic 22%, and the draw 20%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 62%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 67%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 70
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Benfica vs Celtic: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Won1x21.2800
Benfica to win
The model gives Benfica a 59.8% probability of winning. Home advantage and a strong opening result, including a 2-0 win at Milan, support the pick. Celtic lost 3-1 at home to Ferencváros in their Europa League opener, while the listed Home odds are 1.2800. The available head-to-head record is close overall, but Benfica have the stronger current European start.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.9500
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score — Yes a 60.3% probability. Benfica have scored in each of their five recent listed matches, while Celtic have also found the net in four of their last five. Celtic’s away threat can test Benfica, even though the hosts remain favourites. The listed Yes odds are 1.9500, making goals at both ends a credible match angle.
WonOver/Under2.1000
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 66.4% probability. Benfica’s recent listed results include 3-1, 4-0, 3-0 and 2-1, while Celtic’s recent games include 3-1 and two 3-0 defeats. Those form lines point toward an open contest, especially with Celtic needing a response after losing their opener. The supplied odds list Over 3.5 at 2.1000, but no direct Over 2.5 price is provided.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
5.24
Potential Winnings
$212.08
Benfica to win
1x2 / Home
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
58%
Home
Fair odd 1.71
20%
Draw
Fair odd 5.09
22%
Away
Fair odd 4.57
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 85%
Under 15%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 67%
Under 33%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 45%
Under 55%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 62%
No 38%
First Half Winner
45%
Home
32%
Draw
23%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
40%
4%
2%
Draw
17%
9%
6%
Away
4%
5%
13%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
3.2
4.1
2.6
1.1
1
7.3
8.3
5.6
2.4
2
7.7
9.9
6.0
2.5
3
5.6
6.6
4.5
1.9
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 10:2 | 9 | WWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 8:0 | 9 | WWW | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 9 | WWW | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4:1 | 9 | WWW | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 8:1 | 7 | WDW | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 7 | DWW | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 9:5 | 7 | DWW | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4:2 | 7 | DWW | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6:2 | 6 | WWL | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5:4 | 6 | LWW | |
| 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5:6 | 6 | LWW | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4:3 | 5 | DWD | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 8:5 | 4 | DLW | |
| 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5:3 | 4 | LDW | |
| 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 4 | WDL | |
| 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3:4 | 4 | LWD | |
| 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1:3 | 4 | WLD | |
| 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 5:8 | 4 | WDL | |
| 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 3:6 | 4 | DLW | |
| 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4:3 | 3 | WLL | |
| 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 | WLL | |
| 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4:5 | 3 | LWL | |
| 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | WLL | |
| 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3:4 | 3 | LLW | |
| 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | LWL | |
| 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4:7 | 3 | LLW | |
| 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 2:7 | 1 | DLL | |
| 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1:6 | 1 | LLD | |
| 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 2:9 | 1 | LDL | |
| 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1:9 | 1 | DLL | |
| 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 0 | LLL | |
| 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 1:6 | 0 | LLL | |
| 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3:9 | 0 | LLL | |
| 36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 | LLL |
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