Alavés vs Atlético Madrid Prediction: La Liga Match Preview

Welcome to Extratips for our preview of Alavés against Atlético de Madrid at Mendizorroza on October 10, 2026, kicking off at 14:15.

Atlético arrive second with 16 points, while Alavés sit sixth on 11 points. The visitors have the stronger start, winning five of seven matches, but Alavés have impressed with three wins and a positive goal difference. Their home form adds bite to this fixture.

The market lists Atlético at 1.8300, the draw at 3.6000, and Alavés at 4.0000. Those prices point toward an away win, though not an easy one. Both teams to score is priced at 1.7500, while over 2.5 goals stands at 1.8500.

Recent meetings show Atlético's long-term edge, with a 1-0 win in January and a 1-1 draw last August. Alavés also held Atlético 0-0 in May 2025. The last five direct results were Atlético wins of 1-0 and 2-1, draws of 1-1 and 0-0, plus an Alavés 2-0 victory. That pattern suggests a tight contest, yet current scoring form offers more hope for goals.

Alavés' main strengths are their home energy, compact shape, and five-goal goal difference. Their weaknesses are injuries, reduced depth, and a tougher test against elite pressure. Atlético bring greater attacking quality, experience, and strong transition play. Their concern is that a packed schedule and possible absences can reduce sharpness.

Mikel Rodríguez and Facundo Garcés are reported out with knee injuries. Aitor Mañas is recovering from a head injury, while Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sørloth are working toward returns. These absences could shape the midfield battle and late-game options.

The key storyline is Alavés defending their early top-six position against a title-chasing opponent. Another is whether Mendizorroza can turn recent close meetings into a result. A third angle is Atlético's chance to score early and force Alavés away from their compact plan.

Likely scenarios include a narrow Atlético win, rated high, a 1-1 draw, rated medium, or an open 2-1 away victory, rated medium. The main predictions are Atlético to win, both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals.