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At a glance
The statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 42% probability to win away against FC Köln, with the draw at 25% and a FC Köln win at 33%.
The model estimates a 57% probability of more than 2.5 goals in FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The model puts the probability that both FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach score at 59%.
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:30.
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction: Rhine Derby Preview
Welcome to Extratips for a fiery Bundesliga clash at the RheinEnergieStadion on 11 October 2026, with kick-off at 13:30. Köln are 13th with four points from four games, while Gladbach sit 18th without a point. The visitors have lost all four league matches and own a worrying 6:16 goal record.
The derby still promises goals. The last five meetings were Köln 3-3 Gladbach, Gladbach 3-1 Köln, Gladbach 3-3 Köln, Köln 3-1 Gladbach and Köln 0-0 Gladbach. Both teams scored in three of those games, and the latest meeting ended 3-2 to Gladbach. Köln’s recent home form offers some balance, yet their defence has leaked nine goals already. Gladbach have created chances but remain vulnerable at the back.
The key storyline is pressure. Köln want to use home noise and move away from danger, while Gladbach need a response before the season slips further. A tight opening could give way to an open second half. Our model makes Gladbach the narrow favourite, with goals expected from both sides. The main angles are Away, Both Teams To Score: Yes, and Over 2.5 goals.
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives FC Köln a 33% win probability, Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, and the draw 25%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'Yes' at 59%, suggesting both teams are expected to score.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Over 2.5 at 57%, indicating a higher-scoring match is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 51
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FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
Lost1x23.1000
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win
The model gives an away win a 41.7% probability, the highest 1X2 outcome. Gladbach are bottom with 0 points after four matches, but their recent head-to-head record is strong: they won the latest meeting 3-2 and lead the wider series. Köln sit 13th with four points and have conceded nine goals, while Gladbach have scored six despite conceding 16. The available away price is 3.1000, although the home side is shorter with several bookmakers.
WonBoth Teams To Score1.4400
Both teams to score: Yes
The model gives Both Teams To Score: Yes a 58.3% probability. The latest five listed meetings include high-scoring results such as Köln 3-3 Gladbach and Gladbach 3-1 Köln, while the current figures show Köln at 6:9 and Gladbach at 6:16 after four league games. The bookmaker price of 1.4400 also points toward goals at both ends.
WonOver/Under2.0000
Over 2.5 goals
The model gives Over 2.5 a 56.5% probability. Both defences have shown clear weakness: Köln have conceded nine goals and Gladbach 16 in four matches. Recent head-to-head scores have also produced open football, including 3-3, 3-1 and 3-2. The available 2.0000 price supports a match with at least three goals.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
8.93
Potential Winnings
$396.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams to score: Yes
Both Teams To Score / Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Over 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
33%
Home
Fair odd 3.01
25%
Draw
Fair odd 4.01
42%
Away
Fair odd 2.40
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 78%
Under 22%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 57%
Under 43%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 35%
Under 65%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 59%
No 41%
First Half Winner
28%
Home
34%
Draw
38%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
18%
5%
4%
Draw
10%
12%
13%
Away
2%
6%
28%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
6.0
8.0
6.0
3.2
1
7.6
10.7
8.4
4.4
2
4.9
7.4
6.4
3.2
3
2.3
3.4
2.7
1.7
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
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Borussia Mönchengladbach1FC Köln2| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 12:4 | 17 | WDDWW | |
| 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +17 | 22:5 | 14 | WDWWD | |
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 15:6 | 13 | LWDWW | |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +7 | 16:9 | 13 | WWWDW | |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +9 | 20:11 | 12 | WLWLW | |
| 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 15:14 | 12 | WDDWD | |
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 16:13 | 10 | LWLWL | |
| 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 12:15 | 10 | LWLDL | |
| 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 17:13 | 9 | DLDLD | |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6:16 | 9 | LWWWL | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8:11 | 8 | DLWLD | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 6:9 | 8 | WDLWL | |
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 10:17 | 8 | LWLDW | |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 10:13 | 6 | LLWLL | |
| 15 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 4:7 | 6 | DLLDW | |
| 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 11:14 | 6 | WLLWL | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6:18 | 6 | DDWLL | |
| 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 11:22 | 3 | WLLLL |
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