Our model gives Spain a 41.2% chance to win this World Cup semi-final at AT&T Stadium, slightly higher than France’s 35.5% and the draw at 23.2%. Spain arrive with strong momentum after edging Belgium in the quarters, showing patience on the ball and late-game resilience. France still lean on Mbappé’s pace and direct attacks, but they have looked a bit vulnerable when pressed high and forced wide. Bookmaker odds make France slight favourites at 2.30 for the home listing, while Spain sit at 3.10, reflecting market faith in France’s stars but also respect for Spain’s form. Given Spain’s control-oriented style, their recent big-game performances, and our model’s edge toward the Away outcome at 41.2%, Spain to win in 90 minutes is a realistic and value-aligned call.

The model rates Both Teams To Score Yes at 64.3%, clearly ahead of No at 35.7%, pointing to an open semi-final with chances at both ends. Spain’s attacking unit, built around fluid wide play and smart midfield runners, has been finding the net regularly but also leaving space in transition. France, driven by Mbappé and their quick front line, are always dangerous on the break and rarely go quiet for a full 90 minutes. Bookmaker prices back this view, with BTTS Yes around 1.70 versus No at 2.05, suggesting the market also expects goals for both sides. With two high-quality attacks, some defensive question marks, and our model strongly in favour of BTTS Yes at 64.3%, both teams scoring looks very likely.

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 62.9% probability, noticeably higher than Under 2.5 at 37.1%, which fits a semi-final between two attack-minded sides. Spain’s recent matches have featured plenty of chances as they push fullbacks high and trust their midfield to recycle the ball quickly. France’s games tend to open up whenever Mbappé gets space, with their transitions creating shots and, at times, leaving gaps at the back. Bookmaker odds near 1.90 for Over 2.5 versus similar or slightly shorter prices on Under show a fairly balanced market, but our model tilts clearly towards goals. Combined with the BTTS Yes expectation, a scoreline like 2-1 either way feels very plausible, making Over 2.5 the logical total-goals choice.