EU
At a glance
The statistical model gives Porto a 73% probability to win away against Casa Pia, with the draw at 18% and a Casa Pia win at 9%.
The model estimates a 51% probability of fewer than 2.5 goals in Casa Pia vs Porto.
The model puts the probability that both Casa Pia and Porto score at 37%.
Casa Pia vs Porto kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 17:00.
Casa Pia vs Porto: Away Favoritism Strong in Lisbon
Welcome to Extratips for this Liga Portugal clash at Estádio Pina Manique. Casa Pia host Porto on 12 September 2026, 17:00, and the numbers point clearly toward the visitors. The model backs Porto heavily, with the away win, BTTS No, and Under 2.5 all leaning the same way.
Porto arrive with the stronger profile and more control in the market. Casa Pia will need a disciplined shape and a sharp start to stay in it. The top odds also reflect that gap, with Away at 1.1700, No in BTTS at 1.5300, and Under 2.5 at 1.9800 shaping the main story.
This looks like a game where Porto can dominate territory and limit chances at both ends. Casa Pia’s best route is to keep it tight early and hope for set pieces. Porto, though, should have enough quality to take the points. Conclusion: Porto to win, in a low-scoring match.
Casa Pia vs Porto Predictions & Analysis
Our prediction model gives Casa Pia a 9% win probability, Porto 73%, and the draw 18%.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
BTTS leans toward 'No' at 63%, suggesting a clean sheet is likely on at least one side.
Goals Prediction
Goal expectations lean toward Under 2.5 at 51%, indicating a lower-scoring affair is expected.
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly. How our predictions work
Who do you think will win?
Total votes: 66
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Casa Pia vs Porto: frequently asked questions
Predictions are based on statistical models and AI analysis. For informational purposes only - bet responsibly.
Our picks
1x21.1700
Porto to win
The model gives Away a 73.1% probability, and Porto are clear favorites on the odds too at 1.1700. Their stronger squad quality and usual edge in this matchup support the away win, while Casa Pia’s lower home profile makes an upset less likely.
Both Teams To Score1.5300
Both teams not to score
The model gives No a 62.7% probability, which fits a game where Porto are expected to control the tempo and Casa Pia may struggle to break through. The odds also favor this angle, and the match setup points to a one-sided scoreline rather than a free-flowing shootout.
Over/Under1.9800
Under 2.5 goals
The model gives Under 2.5 a 51.4% probability, so it is the slight lean on the goal line. Porto can still win without a high-scoring game, and the BTTS model also leans to No, which matches a tighter match script.
Our picks
Accumulator odds
Total Odds
3.54
Potential Winnings
$127.22
Porto to win
1x2 / Away
Both teams not to score
Both Teams To Score / No
Under 2.5 goals
Over/Under / Under 2.5
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*Odds available at time of writing.
Full Time Result
9%
Home
Fair odd 11.60
18%
Draw
Fair odd 5.49
73%
Away
Fair odd 1.37
Over 1.5 Goals
Over 73%
Under 27%
Over 2.5 Goals
Over 49%
Under 51%
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 28%
Under 72%
Both Teams To Score
Yes 37%
No 63%
First Half Winner
10%
Home
38%
Draw
51%
Away
Half Time / Full Time
HT \ FT
Home
Draw
Away
Home
5%
3%
3%
Draw
4%
12%
20%
Away
1%
3%
50%
Correct Score
Home goals (rows) × Away goals (columns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
7.8
15.3
15.4
10.4
1
3.9
7.8
8.3
5.6
2
1.2
2.2
2.3
1.9
3
4
5
6
7
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
EU
No head-to-head matches found
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | GLS | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 11:1 | 15 | WWWWW | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 18:3 | 13 | WWWWD | |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 14:5 | 13 | WWWWD | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +6 | 9:3 | 11 | WDWWD | |
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7:3 | 10 | DWLWW | |
| 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 11:9 | 9 | WDWDD | |
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3:1 | 7 | LDWW | |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6:5 | 7 | LWWD | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 6:8 | 7 | LLDWW | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5:8 | 5 | WLDLD | |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 6:8 | 4 | LLLWD | |
| 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3:5 | 4 | DLWLL | |
| 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 4:12 | 4 | LLWLD | |
| 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4:6 | 3 | DDLLD | |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 2:11 | 3 | LLWLL | |
| 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5:10 | 2 | LDLDL | |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2:7 | 2 | DLLLD | |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 0:11 | 1 | DLLLL |
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