Our model makes Universitatea Craiova clear favourites, giving the Home win a 58.6% probability, comfortably ahead of the draw at 22.9% and the Away win at 18.4%. Playing at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova enjoy a strong home edge and a big, noisy crowd behind them. In domestic action they have been near the top of Liga I, showing a solid balance of defence and attack over the last season. Ararat-Armenia come in as Armenian champions and league leaders, but they step up in level here and must deal with a long trip and a very intense atmosphere. Bookmaker prices back this view, with several Home quotes around 1.42–1.48, while Away is out at 5.50–6.95 and the Draw above 3.90. Given Craiova’s recent European home results against sides like KuPS and their overall consistency, our model’s 58.6% for the hosts looks well supported by both form and odds. A home win fits with a scenario where Craiova’s higher tempo and individual quality eventually wear down Ararat over 90 minutes.

For the Both Teams To Score market, our model slightly favours a quieter game from the visiting attack, giving BTTS No a 51.4% probability versus 48.6% for Yes. That small edge matches the market view, where BTTS No is priced around 1.90 and Yes at about 1.80, indicating that bookmakers also lean toward at least one side failing to find the net. Universitatea Craiova’s home games in Europe often show a solid defensive base, especially in first legs, as they try to control the tie and avoid conceding cheap away goals. Ararat-Armenia, while strong in their domestic league, are used to dictating play in Armenia; away on a heavier pitch against a more physical side, they may struggle to create clear chances. Recent Armenian Premier League numbers show Ararat winning many matches with controlled scorelines rather than wide-open shootouts, which lines up with a one-sided score such as 2–0 or 3–0 here. Taken together, our model’s 51.4% for BTTS No plus the odds near 1.90 suggest a slightly higher chance that only Craiova make the scoresheet.

Our model sees goals in this tie, giving Over 2.5 exactly a 50.0% probability, making it the top outcome over Under. The goal-line odds strengthen that view: Over on the 2.5 line trades around 1.73, while Under sits longer at about 2.10, hinting that three or more goals are slightly more expected. Universitatea Craiova have shown they can score freely at home, with recent Liga I and European fixtures often finishing with at least three goals thanks to their aggressive full-backs and quick transitions. Ararat-Armenia, champions in Armenia, also come off a season with a strong attacking record and a positive goal difference, and they will need to take some risks in Romania to keep the tie alive. With our main predictions pointing to a Craiova win and BTTS No, a 2–0 or 3–0 home success fits all three markets neatly and remains realistic. Given the model’s 50.0% mark for Over 2.5, coupled with supportive odds and both teams’ recent scoring trends, backing Over 2.5 goals with a value of 2.5 is a logical choice. In summary, we expect a dominant Craiova display, likely a multi-goal home win without Ararat getting on the board.