The model gives Home a 42.0% probability, which is the top outcome for 1X2. Málaga also have the edge at La Rosaleda, and that home push can tilt a tight game. Villarreal still look dangerous, but the market and model both point to a narrow home lean.

The model gives Yes a 54.4% probability, so BTTS is the preferred call. Villarreal bring enough quality to score, while Málaga’s home energy should keep them in the game. Recent matchup patterns also suggest both sides can find a goal.

The model gives Under 2.5 a 50.5% probability, making it the top O/U outcome. This points to a controlled match, with both teams likely to have spells of pressure but fewer clear chances. A close scoreline fits the balance in the numbers and the likely tactical tone.