Our model makes France clear favorites here, giving the Home win a 51.1% probability, higher than both the draw at 24.1% and Morocco at 24.7%. France have looked strong all tournament, staying solid at the back and clinical up front, while Morocco come in as a dangerous underdog but with less attacking depth. Bookmakers back this view too, with Home priced around 1.57, while Morocco are out at about 5.90–6.10 and the draw near 3.80–3.90. France’s higher-quality squad, deeper bench, and experience in knockout football tilt this tight quarterfinal their way at neutral Gillette Stadium.

Our model leans toward an open game, giving BTTS Yes a 54.4% probability versus 45.6% for No. France’s attack creates chances in every match, but Morocco have shown they can hurt teams in transition and on set pieces, as seen in their comfortable win over Canada earlier in the tournament. Odds near 2.00 for BTTS Yes suggest a real chance that both defences get tested. With France pressing for a spot in the semifinals and Morocco willing to commit numbers forward when the moment comes, at least one goal from each side looks more likely than not.

The model slightly favors goals here, giving Over 2.5 a 52.9% probability, just ahead of 47.1% for the Under. France tend to push the tempo once they break through, and Morocco can counter quickly when chasing the game, which often stretches matches in the second half. Market prices around 2.01 for Over 2.5 and 1.84–1.86 for Under show a fairly balanced view, but our model’s edge toward the Over fits a scenario where France’s quality produces multiple goals and Morocco chip in at least once. Taken together with a Home win and BTTS Yes, a 2–1 or 3–1 France victory looks like a very realistic outcome for this quarterfinal clash. In summary, we expect France to advance in a lively game with goals at both ends.